Seventh Heaven
Lakers, Nuggets, Mavericks, Celtics, Spurs, Cavaliers, Magic. Heading into the season, each of those 7 teams is a legit contender in my opinion. Then you have the Jazz and Blazers just a notch below as the sleeper teams, their success depending heavily on Andre Miller’s assimilation and Carlos Boozer’s health and willingness to be a team player. You could even throw in the Hornets as the ultimate dark horse but I don’t think their wing players will be able to produce enough for them to get past the first round. I know people have been raving about the league’s newfound competitiveness ever since the ’06-07 season when every Western playoff team had at least 50 wins but for this season I think it’s truly safe to say that the top of the league hasn’t been this competitive since the mid 90’s.
Of the 7 legit contenders I mentioned, the Nuggets are the only ones not to make significant changes in the offseason. This makes sense because out of all the contenders they would benefit the most from simply having more time together to build cohesiveness. Guys are still learning new things about the greatness of Chauncey Billups, while Billups is learning about the tendencies of his teammates and how to cater to them. Melo actually had a relatively quiet season last year. He doesn’t need to score 30 PPG with the offense the Nuggets have but his FG% (44.3%) will undoubtedly be better after a season with Chauncey under his belt. All reports indicate that Chauncey has taken JR Smith under his wing. JR Smith showed great promise in the playoffs despite not even shooting that well. He was making great drives and passes while playing tenacious defense. This is fantastic because prior to this, shooting has been the only good part about his game. I expect the results to continue, especially now that there’s a good chance of JR starting on the team after the departure of Dahntay Jones.
The Lakers have every reason to be called the favorites. Obviously there’s always a risk involved in acquiring Ron Artest. The Rockets organization kindly reminded us all of this by leaking out a story of him rushing to the team bus in his boxers at the last possible moment in the playoffs. I understand the Rockets’ decision to go with Ariza instead; they didn’t need this story to justify it. My theory is that Ron is a great guy to have on a contending team with a clear identity (as long as nobody’s throwing beer at him) and not such a great guy to have on a non-contender or a team with an obscure identity (like the Rockets). It was obvious in the playoffs that Ron Artest was trying to do too much for the Rockets. That had everything to do with him not having a clear role on the team. It may have seemed like he was experiencing the Antoine Walker syndrome of not accepting the fact that he’s declining and jacking up increasingly stupid shots. I personally don’t think this was the case. He was simply trying to do more than he’s capable of. He isn’t meant to be the first option on offense. With the Lakers I think he can once again find his niche, which has been missing for the most part ever since he left Indiana. I think he wants to win more than anything and that will go a long way.
I don’t see any reason why Richard Jefferson wouldn’t fit in with the Spurs. He’ll be another unselfish cog (as will McDyess) in the finely tuned Popovich machine and will give the team some much needed youth. Vince Carter should click well with Dwight Howard, at least by the time the playoffs come around. The same can be said for Shaq and Lebron. The argument that Shaq will get in Lebron’s way is bogus. Shaq isn’t an idiot, when he sees Lebron rushing to the basket he will simply move out of the way. If Shaq’s defender moves to help on Lebron, Lebron will either still finish the play (because the fact is no big man can stop him without getting called for a whistle, whether or not it’s a good call) or find Shaq for a wide open dunk. Nobody used this argument when Shaq and Wade played together so I don’t understand why people are using it now.
For the Celtics, it all comes down to KG’s health. The addition of Sheed can somewhat compensate for KG’s decline but I’m not going to thoroughly analyze the Celtics because none of us have any idea how KG will perform. Their window is quickly closing. Just like the organization knew it would, that was the price of the championship. I don’t know why Doc Rivers is trying to alienate the one good young piece on the team, Rajon Rondo, in the middle of all this by saying his teammates don’t like playing with him. I haven’t seen any body language on the court to suggest this or any braindead decisions by Rondo to validate this. It’s probably just an alpha dog ego struggle, stemming from Rondo’s rookie season when the two were feuding. Anyway, I personally think he’s the last guy the Celtics should be looking to trade.
The Mavericks have pulled themselves back into the race by acquiring Shawn Marion. Indications are that the Mavs will go back to their high octane brand of basketball. They should be an absolute blast to watch and I look forward to seeing a lineup with Dirk at C and Marion at PF. Fast tempo, scoring-oriented teams are criticized for their inability to win championships and for good reason but when has one of these teams ever been this good while having a C that can shoot 3’s and cause serious matchup problems? It’s not like you can put your PF to guard Dirk because then you have your C guarding Shawn Marion.
The craziest thing about the 7 contenders? Every single one of them has significant players with Finals experience. Even the least experienced of the contenders, the Nuggets, have 2 starters who know what playing on the biggest stage in basketball is like. They’re all legit.
