Dunk Base

The Raptors just lost a game they should have won to the Spurs sans Duncan and Parker and there is bound to be a lot of talk amongst Raptors fans about why this occured so I thought I would dead that immediately by breaking down exactly why they lost since it is part of a larger point that I have made many times in my discussions with basketball fans and even though it seems obvious I don't think a lot of people get it.  The Raptors will be used to make this point for the same reason I will use them as an example for a lot of things I talk about: they're the team I have the most exposure to.  It also helps that their offseason makes them a good team to look at in this particular case.

Here is the obvious point that I think a lot of people miss: guys who don't play will not improve your team.  It seems like it should be pretty obvious but every year teams bring in these guys who are obviously going to play 10 minutes per game and fans of that team talk about them like they are addressing some weakness and I can't recall it ever actually turning out that way.  The Raptors are a great example of this because they brought in a solid interior defender in Rasho, a good shot blocker in Amir Johnson, a great rebounder in Reggie Evans and a solid perimeter defender in Antoine Wright.  Sounds great for a team that was really poor defensively last season and has a weak rebounding front court, right?

Well, not exactly.  Let's use Reggie Evans and his potential impact on the Raptors rebounding as an example.  There were 82 rebounds available in an average Raptors game last season, which means there would be 1.7 rebounds available per minute of the game.  If Reggie Evans plays 15 minutes that means there are 25 rebounds available while he's on the floor and based on his rebounding for his career he'll grab 21% of those rebounds or approximately 5 rebounds.  In that same period of time the players he is likely to replace, Andrea Bargnani and Chris Bosh, would have pulled down approximately 3 and 4 rebounds, respectively. Evans is a much better rebounder than Bargnani and a little better than Bosh but if they both play over twice as many minutes it doesn't matter much.  It's the kind of improvement that will bring a team from 13th to 11th in rebounding or will help them secure an extra win or two but that's about it.  I'm not saying that those kinds of improvements are not important, just that they matter more for a team like the Nuggets or the Cavs than a team that wasn't even in the playoffs last year.  Also, I'm not saying that Reggie Evans should play more than Bargnani(though I don't necessarily think that's a bad idea), I'm mostly talking about the expectations fans have before the games start and they see more of the same from their team despite the entirely new bench.

There was also some offseason talk about the impact Antoine Wright would have when he arrived in Toronto.  The Raptors definitely needed to tighten up their perimeter defense and bringing in a guy who dedicates as much energy to it as Wright is certainly a good start but as of now the Raptors are the second worst defensive team in the NBA which means they have actually taken a pretty significant step back so far, and while it's definitely early in the season I think it's pretty safe to say that the Raptors are going to be in the bottom 1/3 of the league when the season is over.  Why didn't things change after bringing in a solid defensive big man in Rasho and some solid backcourt defenders in the aforementioned Wright and Jarrett Jack?

They don't play!  Or rather, Jack and Wright actually play a bit but they don't matter as much in today's NBA.  Rasho is the key, he is a solid defensive big man, a solid rebounder and from his time on the Spurs he has had where to rotate and when drilled into his skull.  That is what matters most, it is inevitable that Wright and Jack are going to get beat frequently in the modern NBA so you need to have a big man there to challenge their men and play effective pick and roll defense, unfortunately for the Wright, Jack and the rest of the Raptors guard the Raptors have Bosh and/or Bargnani filling that role like they did last year.  To sum it up, having the same players playing most of the minutes and occupying the same crucial spots will yield roughly the same results almost every time.  I bring this up after the Spurs game because the Raptors played some terrible defense.  George Hill sliced through their defense with ease and Matt Bonner was driving the lane for dunks and layups, that's pretty inexcusable.  As I write this the Raptors are 3-4 with each of their losses being an absolutely pathetic defensive game and outside of the Cavs game their wins have not been particularly impressive either.  They did nothing to slow down Chris Paul, they're just lucky that the Hornets have essentially been a one man team this year(37 baskets per game, Paul scores or assists on 19 of them), and the Pistons had their second highest point total of the season despite being without two starters.  Ugh.  The Raptors are the best offensive team in the NBA and the worst defensive team in the NBA, which in theory should mean that the Raptors would finish the season around .500 and that would definitely be an improvement.  I'm a skeptic because offenses can run cold and if the Raptors start bricking shots they're not going to be winning games with their defense so it's up to them to figure out what the problem is and how it can be solved.  

I think the blame lies on Bosh and Bargnani, I think they may be the worst defensive front court I have ever seen.  Their man to man defense is not completely terrible but the Raptors are not getting beat by great big men lighting them up, they are getting beat the way everyone gets beat in todays NBA: dribble penetration with poor help and bad pick and roll defense.  I'm not sure we can chalk it up to coaching because I've been watching Jay Triano coached teams for a long time and I know that he knows what he's doing.  When he got Canada into the Olympics they were effective at trapping and hedging ball handlers after screens and their rotations were pretty good; Canada certainly didn't make it to the Olympics because of their offensive firepower.  The Raptors just can't seem to get that, in various games this year I've watched Chris Paul split a dozen traps, George Hill blow by a hedging Bargnani(and calderon shares in the blame because he covered the pass to the roller terribly as well) and Baron Davis get to the rim at will with no shot blockers to beat.

When I watch them these days I can't do much but shake my head, even if the game is close enough to be interesting I find myself wanting to turn the game off because I can't stand watching defense that bad.  I feel kind of bad for Raptors fans because right now it seems like the season is going to be spend watching Chris Bosh pad his stats so he can land big a contract in another city.  I hope it doesn't turn out that way because I'd like to see the only Canadian team be somewhat successful but this kind of defense is not going to win you anything.  The often criticized Phoenix Suns defense is lightyears ahead of his garbage.

Now, in the interest of journalistic integrity I suppose I should mention that the Raptors managed to hold the 27th and 21st best offensive teams in the NBA to 89 points each since I wrote the first few paragraphs of this article, so I guess congratulations are in order?  Maybe not.  Also, I'm going to start doing an Andrea "the White Eddy Curry" Bargnani rebounding watch.  2 rebounds in 33 minutes tonight, Andrea.  Maybe if you had a mans name you would stop playing like such a sissy.  Want me to start calling you Andrew or something?

Finally, I've been away from the site for a little bit but expect a lot more activity over the next little while as I have a lot more free time to play around with this.

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