Dunk Base

I’m not going to waste time beating around the bush. The second season starts tomorrow. Here are 11 predictions for Round 1 of the 2011 Playoffs:

1. If Healthy, Roddy Beaubois will have a field day against Portland

For some reason, Portland can’t contain explosive guards. Monta Ellis annihilated them in all of their meetings during the regular season, as did Dwyane Wade, as did Eric Gordon, as did Russell Westbrook, as did Derrick Rose. Also, if you recall back to last April, Jason Richardson torched them in Round 1, including a 42-point outburst in Game 3. Obviously Beaubois isn’t as good as any of those players, but he played well against Portland in both games that he was healthy for (34 combined points in 47 minutes, 12-18 from the floor).

Portland has three different lanky defenders to throw at Dirk in Aldridge, Wallace, and Batum, so Dallas will need someone else to step up if Dirk is struggling. Beaubois needs to be that guy. Dallas’ front office deemed him untradeable when they were looking for Caron Butler insurance at the trade deadline, so he needs to prove that he deserves that tag if Dallas wants to move on.

He suffered a mild foot sprain against New Orleans on Wednesday, and his health is a bit up in the air, especially considering he missed 54 games this year with a broken bone in that same foot. If Beaubois is 100% and ready to go, I’m picking the Mavs in 5. This seems like one of those series where everyone talks themselves into an upset and the favorite ends up winning easily. I can spot these a mile away. Dallas should cruise.

2. We will be reminded that Rajon Rondo is an elite point guard

Against up-tempo teams, Doc Rivers usually gives Rondo carte blanche to push the ball in transition, and it usually works well. He torched the Knicks all three times he faced them, including a 10/10/24 (and no, I didn’t accidentally reverse the order of those numbers) way back in October. Rondo thrives in up-tempo games against abysmal defensive teams. That’s my expert opinion.

Let’s also not forget that Rondo has a history of posting ridiculous numbers in the playoffs, stat lines like 29/9/7, 19/16/12, 25/11/11, 28/8/11, 8/9/19, 15/11/18, 27/6/12, 13/4/19, 29/18/13, and 19/12/10 (all Points/Rebounds/Assists numbers from the past two postseasons). Expect a lot of crooked numbers on the stat sheet from Rondo over the next two weeks. I think Rondo is the key to this Boston/New York series, and I don’t think New York has anyone that can contain him, so I’ll say Celtics in 5.

3. Orlando/Atlanta will break the unofficial record for “Most Boring Round 1 Series Ever”

My guess is that both of these teams will try as hard as they possibly can to blow this series. Unfortunately, one of these teams will win the right to get slaughtered by Chicago in Round 2. As John Hollinger mentioned on Bill Simmons’ podcast on Thursday, this very well may be the first and only time that the health of Jason Collins will play a significant factor in a playoff series. For some inexplicable reason, Collins flummoxes Dwight Howard. That matchup, Gilbert Arenas’s continuing “Weekend at Bernie’s” routine, and Al Horford’s eventual massacre of Ryan Anderson should tip the scales to Atlanta. I like the Hawks in 6.

4. Memphis will regret tanking their last two games

Specifically, they will regret tanking the game in Portland on Tuesday night. Had they won that one, as well as their game Wednesday against the Clippers (and they came close to winning both of them regardless), they would have moved up to the #6 seed and gotten to play Dallas. Who they would have killed. Memphis won 3 of 4 against Dallas this season and Zach Randolph treated the Mavs front line like a red-headed stepchild with buckteeth, a lazy eye, life-altering body odor, bad fashion sense and a club foot. They would have beaten the Mavs easily. Instead, they have to play San Antonio. Speaking of San Antonio…

5. Manu Ginobili will regret offending that witch doctor during the 2007 offseason

San Antonio won the title in 2007, and since then, Ginobili has suffered a badly sprained ankle in the 2008 Playoffs, a stress fracture in his right leg at the end of the 2009 season that forced him to miss the playoffs, a broken nose during Round 1 last year, and now has a sprained elbow that leaves him doubtful for Game 1 against Memphis. It's like he's been the victim of a voodoo attack. I don’t think it will end up costing them the series, and I’ll take the Spurs in 6, because the Lionel Hollins/Gregg Popovich coaching matchup should be more one-sided than the first Iceland/USA game in D2: The Mighty Ducks. However, it could have serious lingering effects in Round 2.

If Ginobili’s elbow turns out to be in worse shape than it looks right now, Memphis could give the Spurs a run for their money, but I’ll say he’ll be able to go.

6. The Lakers will thoroughly embarrass the Hornets

I have half a mind to pick Lakers in three. This series will be so one-sided that they might just cancel the last four games altogether, but since they won’t do that, it will be the Lakers in 4. The Hornets don’t have anyone that can even slow down Kobe, Gasol, Odom, OR Bynum. On the flip side, nobody on LA can guard Chris Paul, but it’s not going to matter. This should be like Cleveland/Detroit in 2009 - just a dominating performance by the Lakers.

After stumbling into the playoffs, the Lakers end of the bracket looks like a dream come true. First they’ll get to manhandle the Hornets, then they’ll have either Dallas or Portland, which should be an easy win regardless. From there, they’ll have their mojo back for the Western Finals. The draw for LA looks very enticing.

7. Derrick Rose will overcome his debilitating fear of clowns

It has recently come out that Derrick Rose is as deathly afraid of clowns as Charlie Sheen is of sanity. This has led to a number of rumors that thousands of Indiana fans will be dressed as clowns for Game 3 on Thursday. That might be enough to swing that game, but it won’t change the outcome of the series. I like the Bulls in 5.

One thing to watch for – Paul George and his matchup against Chicago’s shooting guards. George has serious star potential, or at least significantly more than I’ve seen anyone give him credit for. He has glimpses of it occasionally, but it’s fleeting and he can’t hold onto it for more than a few possessions at a time. Keep an eye on him when he’s out there.

8. The All-NBA Teams (and other awards) will be announced as follows:

Okay, this isn’t a prediction about Round 1, and I’m not even predicting, I’m submitting my own ballots. Whatever. I didn’t have space in my MVP column on Wednesday so I’m shoehorning them in here. Deal with it. Dwight Howard and Blake Griffin are the obvious no-brainers for Defensive Player of The Year and Rookie of The Year, respectively. Gregg Popovich is my pick for Coach of the Year for adjusting his style on the fly and managing his veterans’ minutes flawlessly, all while maintaining the #1 seed in the West. Dorrell Wright is my pick for Most Improved Player because I don’t see any other candidates that make sense (Kevin Love? He’s a lottery pick. Isn’t he SUPPOSED to improve?). Here are my All-NBA teams:

All-NBA 1st Team:
G: Derrick Rose
G: Dwyane Wade
F: LeBron James
F: Dirk Nowitzki
C: Dwight Howard

All-NBA 2nd Team:
G: Kobe Bryant
G: Chris Paul
F: Kevin Durant
F: Pau Gasol
C: Amar’e Stoudemire

All-NBA 3rd Team:
G: Russell Westbrook
G: Manu Ginobili
F: LeMarcus Aldridge
F: Kevin Garnett
C: Tyson Chandler

All-Defensive 1st Team:
G: Rajon Rondo
G: Dwyane Wade
F: LeBron James
F: Kevin Garnett
C: Dwight Howard

All-Defensive 2nd Team:
G: Kyle Lowry
G: Tony Allen
F: Grant Hill
F: Taj Gibson
C: Andrew Bynum

All-Defensive 3rd Team:
G: Chris Paul
G: Ronnie Brewer
F: Josh Smith
F: Andre Iguodala
C: Omer Asik

Aren’t you glad we did that? I am too. Moving on.

9. Ty Lawson’s ankle injury will de-rail Denver’s gravy train

Lawson would have been a serious X-factor in this series if he were healthy, but it’s looking like he’s going to be hobbled. To me, this injury seems a lot more of a game-changer than Beaubois’s foot or Ginobili’s elbow, not because of the severity of it, but because of how it relates to the strengths of each player. Ginobili’s elbow will affect his shot, but he’ll still be able to create off the dribble and contribute on defense. Beaubois’s foot will affect his explosiveness in the open floor, but he’ll still be a factor because of his shooting and creativity in the half-court. With Lawson, his only elite skill is his speed, so without it, I don’t see any areas that he can be a difference maker.

Also, Denver, in a way, reminds me a bit of Cleveland these last three seasons. Obviously they don’t have the star power of LeBron, but their strengths as a team come from their depth, quirkiness, and unconventionality. They seem like a team that would be much easier to beat in the playoffs once teams start tailoring specific game plans. I like the Thunder in 5 because I can’t see Denver having anyone that can match up with Westbrook or Durant. With a healthy Lawson, Denver might have been able to push tempo enough to make the series more competitive, but I don’t see that happening with a bum ankle.

10. Miami’s Round 1 series could be the worst possible thing for them going forward

Don’t get me wrong, I’m picking the Heat in 5. I’m just saying that in the long run, that might not be the best thing for them. Against Philly, they’ll be successful pushing the tempo, and they might fall too in love with a transition game. Like I said, it won’t affect them in Round 1, but if they get too used to it, it could end up biting them in the keister in Round 2 or Round 3 when the tempo slows and they’ll need to rely on their halfcourt sets.

The set that Miami has had a lot of success with, but Erik Spoelstra has seemed intentionally vague on the reasons why they haven’t run it more has been a screen-roll with LeBron and Wade together. A lot of people (including yours truly) think that Spoelstra has been playing possum and saving the look for the playoffs, so if they unleash that in Rounds 2 and 3, just forget that I ever wrote this entire section.

You may have noticed my final prediction already, but if not:

11. No Round 1 series will go 7 games

For the first time ever in the best-of-seven format in Round 1, not a single series will go to a deciding seventh game. The only one that I could see that potentially happening in would be Dallas/Portland, but I’d still bet against it.

It won’t matter though. Round 2 with Heat/Celtics, Spurs/Thunder, and Lakers/Mavs will more than make up for it.

The Second Season starts tomorrow. I’m giddy.

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