Dunk Base

It's been the most overdone story in sports recently. The Cleveland Cavaliers and LeBron James haven't played a game since May 13, and since then all we've heard about is LeBron James and where he might be going. The talk about it has even taken over much of the talk of the NBA Finals, MLB interleague play, and has been on par with the talk of the World Cup, although if you ask me it should get more coverage than the World Cup. In other words, there has not been this much hype leading into the start of the free agent season ever before.

The hype is not without merit. LeBron James is the best basketball player in the world right now. His blend of size, skill, and athleticism is something that the league has never seen before. While he's not without fault, he's able to hide those faults very well. His career statistics have him averaging 27.8 points per game, 7 rebounds per game, 7 assists per game, 1.7 steals per game, and .9 blocks per game while shooting 47.5% from the field. However, even more impressive are his numbers since his rookie season. Since then he's averaging 29 points per game, 7.3 rebounds per game, 7.1 assists per game, 1.8 steals per game, and .9 blocks per game while shooting 48.4% from the field. The difference in any one category isn't anything huge, but when you realize that we're talking about every category mentioned, even the blocks per game were more, but not enough to be as much as .1 per game. There isn't a basketball fan in the world who doesn't understand why there is so much hype around LeBron. He can take a 30 win team and turn them into title contenders, evidenced by three of the last four years.

So what is going through LeBron's head at this moment? To be honest, nobody knows. None of us know exactly how LeBron thinks, his concerns, his wants, or how he weighs those. None of us have been in the situation that LeBron is in right now, not even any NBA player has been in the situation that LeBron James is in right now. However, as long as everyone understands that this can only be taken with a grain of salt, I'm going to give it my best shot. I am going to go over the main teams looking to sign him, and then we will look at other aspects which may make a difference as far as his decision goes.

Dennis Scott recently said that if LeBron wants money, he's going to New York. If LeBron wants to win he'll go to Chicago, and if he wants to remain loyal, he'll stay in Cleveland. There is one team that he can confidently feel can offer him all three of those, and that team is, outside of Cleveland, the current frontrunner, the Chicago Bulls. The Chicago Bulls are the third largest market in the NBA, and within a few years they'll be the largest market team in the NBA that doesn't share their market with another team, as the Nets will likely be in Brooklyn. Chicago has been a hotbed for plenty of athletes in the past to bring in endorsements, most noticably being Michael Jordan. Chicago also isn't a polarizing market like New York and Los Angeles tend to be. Very few people don't either love or hate New York teams and Los Angeles teams. This also looks to have been a factor of the success of the NBA during Jordan's reign over the league. As far as winning goes, the Chicago Bulls have a strong duo of players who are there and are both LeBron's age or younger in Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah. Derrick Rose has continued to get better and better and add more and more to his game since he entered the league after being drafted first overall in 2008. Joakim Noah has been much the same as Rose, although as more of a defender. He has still added weapons to his offensive game as well since he was drafted in 2007. The Bulls have other solid players on the team. Luol Deng is a good small forward, but either him or LeBron would likely have to move to shooting guard or Deng would have to come off the bench. Taj Gibson is another solid player, a good, scrappy defender who has a good jump shot out to about 15-18 feet and can clean up down low, a potential 10 and 10 guy. Both Gibson and Deng are also about the same age as LeBron is. So what you see here is a group of guys that not only give LeBron a better supporting cast than he has ever had so far, but also is a group that won't get old on him. The Bulls also have a chance to sign another major free agent. The biggest possibilities seem to be Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire, and Joe Johnson. Bosh is only a year older than LeBron, Amare a year older than Bosh, and Johnson is 29 years old. If the Bulls can pull in one of these free agents, then they can really make life difficult for the rest of the league. Lastly, with loyalty, LeBron James was a fan of Chicago Bulls growing up, so there would clearly be a level of loyalty there to the team that he rooted for growing up. The Bulls have a great legacy behind them with their team from 1988-1998, but outside of that they only had one stretch in the 70's where they were a contender. On top of that, the front office with the Bulls is shaky. Many fans don't know if Gar Foreman is actually the GM or if he's just Paxson's puppet. On top of that, Paxson nearly went to blows last season with then Bulls coach Vinny Del Negro. The signing of Tom Thibodeau as the team's new head coach could work in either way for LeBron James. Thibodeau is a basketball genius who has put together some of the best defensive schemes in recent NBA history. However, at the same time he has never been a head coach before, so he's also a little bit of a question mark.

The Cleveland Cavaliers still probably are the frontrunners for LeBron James. LeBron grew up in Akron, Ohio, and when he came into the league he was another one of those hometown guys going to his hometown team when he was drafted by the Cavaliers with the first overall pick in 2003. The Cavaliers failed to make the playoffs either of LeBron's first two years in the league despite LeBron playing very well each year. During LeBron's third season the Cavaliers not only made it into the playoffs, but gave the heavily favored Detroit Pistons a great series which went seven games. The next year the Cavaliers and LeBron surprised the league even more as they went to the NBA Finals before being swept by the San Antonio Spurs. Since then it's been all downhill for the Cavaliers. They got to the conference finals during the 2008/2009 season, but were famously ousted by the Orlando Magic that season. The Cavaliers have surrounded LeBron with star players, but star players who were not in their prime at the time. Shaquille O'Neal could barely move this past season, Antawn Jamison came over just months away from his 34th birthday as well this past season in a deadline trade. The bottom line is that the Cavaliers have failed to put a good supporting cast behind LeBron as of late, and LeBron can only allow loyalty to take him so far. Kevin Garnett said something into LeBron James' ear after the Celtics took down the Cavaliers in the playoffs. Was it related to that? We really don't know, but Kevin Garnett was a player who was loyal to the Minnesota Timberwolves for much longer than he ever should have been, getting one good playoffs run with them his entire time there. When he finally got out of there, Garnett was 31 years old, 32 by the time the Celtics actually won the championship that season. Garnett had a run that saw him as one of the top players in the league for several years and if he had been in a good organization he could possibly have won more rings. LeBron James is 25 years old and he realizes this. This is his chance to go somewhere else to go out there and win a ring. He loves Cleveland, and even more loves his actual home town of Akron, but will he finally jump town and go for that ring that Cleveland can't help him get?

The Miami Heat are going to be one of the more active teams in free agency this season. They look almost certain to be bringing back Dwyane Wade, and they still would have a ton of cap space after that move, almost enough to give Wade his max and bring in two other top free agents. A trade of Michael Beasley would create enough cap space for that, assuming they don't take anything back in return unless it's for one of the other major free agents. Miami also has one of the biggest names in basketball running their team in Pat Riley. Pat Riley alone, as has been said on ESPN a hundred times this past week, is going to be very difficult to say no to, and getting to play alongside a player like Dwyane Wade is also something that may entice James. However, I think James knows that playing alongside Wade would really limit the effect that each player has on the team. Their styles are very similar. Both are mainly scorers who score mainly with mid-range jump shots and penetration. Both are also unselfish players, but the style being so similar between the two would be something that wouldn't allow either player to really have their best effect on the floor. LeBron may very well realize this and understand that the Heat are not a great fit for him. If not, there's still no doubt that putting LeBron and Wade together would make for a deadly duo, but there's better pairings for LeBron.

The New York Knicks are another team that has drawn interest from the media during this offseason, and not shockingly at all. The Knicks have enough cap room to sign two top free agents and at the same time are in the media capital of America. The Knicks are a franchise with a long history, although not the greatest history, but still a solid history, really only lacking heavily in number of championships. Madison Square Garden is considered to be the Mecca of the NBA, the biggest stage that the league has. If LeBron went to New York, on the court he'd be able to play there for more fans every night that he would be able to play for anywhere else. Not only that, but the glamour of the New York life would also be something that could draw LeBron in. There's a huge number of stars, including the most famous Knicks fan, Spike Lee. However, at the same time the Knicks have been almost a cursed franchise in recent years. Good up and coming players have gone there and fallen flat on their faces, star players have gone there to see their careers die. Jalen Rose, Stephon Marbury, and Steve Francis are all examples of star quality players who have had their careers completely die after going to the Knicks. While this may just be a coincidence, at the same time, I'm sure that this doesn't go without notice to LeBron. The Knicks as a whole have been a mess of an organization for the past seven years or so, and it would be a risky move for LeBron to sign with them, even if they do bring in another top level free agent.

Next up is the New Jersey Nets. The Nets are an organization with a new owner who may be the most awesome person in the entire world. LeBron's friend Jay-Z is also a minority owner of the team. While he would have to play in Newark for his first couple of years, soon after that the team would be moving to Brooklyn, putting LeBron into the huge New York market where he could see money coming at him from all sides much like if he joined the Knicks. The Nets also have a nice group of young talent. Devin Harris is the oldest of their main core of players at 27 years old, so the age of the group would not be an issue. The Nets also have Brook Lopez as their center, one of the top young centers in the league. The Nets also have a nice young shooting guard in Courtney Lee, and an up and coming player in Terrence Williams. However, at the same time some of the young talent on the Nets is also unproven. Courtney Lee hasn't proven to be any more than a nice shooting guard, and Terrence Williams may wind up being very good, but he still has a long way to go. On top of that, Williams is a small forward right now, and if LeBron came over he would not likely play much with Williams on the floor, as Williams would be a backup wing and possibly not get the minutes that he would need in order to develop well. The last thing I will mention from the Nets is that they just finished this past season barely escaping the worst record in league history. This team has a lot of problems to work out still. Prokhorov will likely need a few years to get everything sorted out on that team and that's another few years off of LeBron's career that probably doesn't want to give up.

The Los Angeles Clippers have been talked about as a possible destination for LeBron as well. They've been talked about much less than the other teams mentioned, but they're still a possible destination. They will have more than enough money to bring on LeBron James, and they have some nice players still under contract in Baron Davis, Chris Kaman, and Eric Gordon. On top of those three there is 2009's first overall pick, Blake Griffin. While for all we know, Griffin could wind up being a flop, that seems to be very unlikely. Griffin is a strong power forward who has a great basketball IQ as well as a great ability to score and pass. There is no question that this combined with playing in Los Angeles, where if LeBron went there you can bet that the stars would come out more for the Clippers, this group is something that has LeBron taking a second look at the Clippers. However, at the same time the Clippers have been a bad franchise for most of the last 34 years, making the playoffs 4 times in that span, and only once back to back (although the three years before that they did make the playoffs). On top of that, Baron Davis is a player who has not only a history of injury concerns, but also concerns about his effort at all times on the floor. Chris Kaman also has injury concerns, and Blake Griffin has already missed an entire season, missing all of his rookie season with an injury. While this wasn't a reoccuring injury with Griffin, it still should raise a red flag. When you look at the risk of bad luck hitting the Clippers with who's on that team as well as how horrible the fanchise has historically been, I have a feeling that LeBron will want to keep away.

The Dallas Mavericks have come on recently as a team to potentially make a move to get LeBron. However, even with Dirk Nowitzki having opted out of his contract, the Mavericks are committed to over $60 million in contracts. The only way they can get LeBron with a sign and trade. Even if they do make a move for LeBron, the team's top players are all rather old in comparison to LeBron, and LeBron likely doesn't want to go in for just one or two championships. He probably wants to go out there and win at least a handful of championships. While I think the Mavericks would be enticing for a short term fix, it's not likely what LeBron is looking for.

LeBron likely is feeling a lot of pressure from all of these areas to sign with their teams. He seems to be a decent enough person that he doesn't want to disappoint any one of them, but he realizes that he has to pick one of them. Going by this, the Knicks would have to be his top choice with the Clippers, Nets, Mavericks, and Bulls being next up. However, this is a decision that I feel LeBron needs to make for himself, not the fans. He needs to figure out which team would be the best one for his legacy, which team will actually help him win those rings, which team will provide him with long term success. Which team can he feel good playing for? There's all of these aspects that he is probably trying to figure out. He's going to get paid no matter where he goes, money isn't the issue, it's purely in where the best place is for him. I'm not going to say which team is the best fit for him, but rather just look at what, if I'm LeBron, I'm looking at for each of the teams.

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