Dunk Base

The NBA MVP race holds a grip over most fans and analyst every year for some reason or another.  It is the preeminent discussion piece between the All Star break and the start of the playoffs (and depending on whom the front runner is, some time after).  One point of contention that never seems to away is, no one at this point quite knows how to judge it from year to year.  A few have decided that some sort of mathematical formula should be used to determine the best candidate (whether it be a combination of simple stats, win shares, PER, or something even more complicated).  Others just assume that it should just be the best player in the league for every season (however that’s really determined).  There’s another camp that feels that it should go to the best player on the best team (this line of thinking ignores several factors that go into winning).  Therein lies the problem, is the best player (or the best player on the best team) in the league necessarily the most valuable?

This is the biggest debate with the MVP award every year and has only gained more steam with more forums of discussion being opened (sports talk shows, message boards, etc.).  The biggest debate in recent years is whether Steve Nash deserved his two MVPs (and the following year when many felt he most deserved the MVP because no one wanted to give a white Canadian three MVPs, it went to Dirk Nowitzki, who probably should’ve won it the year before).  Many people feel that where you fall in the Steve Nash MVP debate sort of defines how you feel about the award (especially the ’06 race).  Do you give the MVP to a player who pulled his team, who for all intents and purposes should be a lottery team, to a low playoff spot or do you give it to the player who was the primary factor in taking a team from being a borderline playoff contender to championship caliber team?  Which one of those guys is truly more valuable to their teams?

My personal feeling is that you have to take all of those factors into account.  Who is the best player in the league (relatively)?  Which player is the best on the best team (and how big is his overall impact)?  Which player has the biggest impact on his team winning?

There are some qualifiers though.  The player that wins the MVP almost always has to be a player on a team that has won 61% of their games (which equates to about 50 wins today).  Since the MVP award was introduced in 1956, only four players have won the MVP with their team’s winning percentages being below that.  The first one was Bob Pettit in ’56 (which probably should’ve gone to Paul Arizin, there’s some controversy associated with it, but I don’t have the material in front of me to find out).  Next was Bob McAdoo in ’75.  That award could’ve easily gone to Rick Barry (and probably should have, the Bullets and Celtics had 60 wins that season but both teams were built like the ’04 Pistons), but Buffalo was such a surprise to be in the upper echelon that it seemed reasonable to give it to McAdoo.  Kareem in ‘76 became the first MVP not to have his team in the playoffs, but that was another shaky season where the best teams didn’t field a clear cut MVP and the previous front runners didn’t establish themselves as they had in the past (hence it went to the best player in the league).  The last player to win an MVP with his team winning less than 61% of their games was Moses Malone in ’79 (he did it again in ’81 for the exact same reasons).  Notice that three of the five came in the late 70s (and one holdover) when there were no true dominant teams (mainly because the talent was too spread out before the NBA/ABA merger and it was too condensed after the merger).  So, you can pretty much throw out any player whose team doesn’t reach the 50 win plateau (despite arguments otherwise, it’s just not going to happen).

This season is a lot more cut and dried than in years past.  There isn’t the same kind of cluster in the league as there was in the late 70s.  A high percentage of the best players in the NBA are on teams in the upper echelon of the league.  There’s no real shortage of candidates (and there really hasn’t been since the last 70s either, that was just a weird time for the league in general).  So, let’s break down who the favorites are and who has the best chance of winning the Maurice Podoloff Trophy.

First up is already a one time NBA MVP.  Kobe Bryant has danced around the number one position all season, and it’s not entirely clear why.  Bryant is having a normally great season that he’s been accustomed to over the years, which is great for an argument on consistency.  Bryant should be in the discussion because he is having a typically great season but he shouldn’t really be considered the favorite, mainly because his “supporting cast” is just too good.  This season has seen Bryant revert back to the gunner that got him into a bit of trouble back in the early to mid 00s (although some have argued that nothing changed in the first place).  The only difference is that his team is good enough to make up for the areas that he traditionally ignores.  They’re arguably the best team in the league and it didn’t help Bryant’s cause that the Lakers went 4-1 with him out of the line-up further highlighting the fact that it’s not just Kobe Bryant winning games for the Lakers, but his “sidekicks” as well.  For whatever reason, it always feels like Bryant is included in these discussions because everyone assumes he has to be.  It’s unfortunate that this is the cause of some negative backlash because it detracts from Bryant actually is as a player rather than the kind of player he’s being popped up to be.

Steve Nash has sort of been cast as Kobe Bryant’s MVP nemesis over the years.  Nash got the award in ’06 when a large portion of fans thought that Bryant should’ve gotten it for having his best statistical season (despite the fact that voters are always going side with the team winning over 50 wins).  Nash is doing the same things this season that he did that season, but to a greater effect.  This is mainly due to having less amount of talent surrounding him.  The Suns are currently in fifth place in the west and on the cusp of the 61% marker.  He’s clearly carrying a team whose other star player (Stoudemire) has been on and off all season in part because of his offseason plans.  They’re rebounding and wing play have been inconsistent at best (Channing Frye and Stoudemire would have trouble averaging 12 rebounds between them and I’m not completely sure Jason Richardson is awake half the time), and their bench is very shaky (although I will say that Dudley and Dragic have been playing better than I ever would’ve thought).  His defense is still suspect but this season has proven once again that he more than makes up for it on offense with his mastery of the point guard position (it’s pretty hard to master the position on defense these days all things considered).  Much like Bryant, he shouldn’t really be considered a front runner but he’s succeeding with a higher level of difficulty than any of the other contenders.

The argument probably could’ve been made at the beginning of the season that Dwight Howard is playing with the lowest level of difficulty this season.  The Magic started out the season with highest number of former All-Stars (four), than any team in the league (or at least tied).  And after winning the Eastern Conference last season they were among the favorites to do so again.  Howard didn’t necessarily help his cause by stumbling out of the gate (Magic started off well enough, but at the same time, they didn’t feel like a juggernaut).  Since then he’s rebounded as his defense has been much better as of late (he was having issues with staying out of foul trouble) and he’s grabbing boards at a rate that we’re all familiar with.  His increased his production has helped the Magic look much more like the contenders they were supposed to be.  The thing that’s primarily holding Howard back (and is probably going to hold him back from future MVPs) is his attitude on offense.  He’s been criticized in the past for not having the arsenal on offense to really make teams pay, which is true, but he also doesn’t have the mentality to make teams pay on offense.  He’s getting better at recognizing and passing out of double teams, but he rarely ever forces the issue and makes the defense react to him (which plays out a good bit every time he’s matched up against Kendrick Perkins).  Despite his lack of post moves, he should still be more of an offense force than he’s shown in his career so far and it seems like that will always be a knock against him.

Carmelo Anthony is one of the many players in this league that has no problem with forcing the issue on offense.  This season has been a coming out party of sorts for Anthony.  Everyone knew he had the talent but he let outside factors impact his focus.  That hasn’t been an issue this season as he’s putting together his most consist season thus far in his career.  He finally seems to be putting it all together for the first time.  One of the big knocks against Anthony this season in terms of his MVP candidacy is playing on the same team as Chauncey Billups (who for whatever reason as an overly esteemed reputation).  The Nuggets are good without Anthony in the line-up and Billups being their main focal point, but they reach another level when Anthony is out on the floor and it feels like they can legitimately contender.  I always feel that Anthony’s game is rather underappreciated because of some of his contemporaries.  He’s more of a traditional swing that fits well into a balanced offense and makes it great, but because there are do everything wings like James and Wade, Anthony’s accomplishments are overshadow because he doesn’t fill up the stat sheet in quite the same way.  He can be every bit as dominating and controlling as those two though.

Along those same lines is Kevin Durant.  He’s leading a team that no one expected to be this far ahead of schedule.  He’s scoring at an amazing clip this season and at this point is leading the league in scoring (ever so slightly ahead of James and Anthony) and has been on some fairly impressive scoring streaks.  Oddly enough, there isn’t that much to say about Durant as he scores with a tenacity and effortlessness that hasn’t been in this league for awhile and sort of goes beyond mere description.  On the flip side of that though, his elite scoring seems like the only thing he brings to the table sometimes, however great it is.  He still needs to improve on some areas of his game (despite being a fairly unselfish player, he’s not that good of a set up man, his defense is still subpar, and he turns the ball over quite a bit), but he should be in these discussions for the better part of the next decade.

This brings us to the final player in the MVP discussion and really the only player who is the discussion.  Currently Lebron James is the best player in the league and also has the most impact on his team as a whole.  There has been an open argument about which team has the most talent in the league and the Cavaliers are usually thrown into the mix because they are the best team in the NBA currently.  This is a bit of a misnomer because the talent on the team is only great relative to their best player.  Each one of the players in the Cavs rotation is suited to play with James (outside of possibly Shaq).  He has a plethora of shooters on the wings, a few forwards who can spread the floor and crash the boards, and a few bigs who are adept at playing the pick and roll.  Most of the players wouldn’t be as successful left their own devices, but playing off and with James, they become fantastic support players.  That’s what ultimately makes James the best player in the league and the front runner for the MVP.  He has the ability unlike any other player, to take a bunch of parts that might not be much away from them and makes them relevant playing with him.  No one else is even that close.

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